Monday, August 8, 2011

Rookie of the Year....

Yesterday on twitter, Jeff Passan, MLB Columnist for Yahoo!, tweeted that since coming back from the DL, Aroldis Chapman has been the most dominating releiver in the Majors (20 1/3 ip, 5 hits, 6 bb, 37 Ks, and a 1.37 era). While that is impressive, I had to remind him of Craig Kimbrel's numbers over the same time period (24 ip, 6 hits, 6 bb, 40 Ks, 0.00 era, along with a 1-0 record and 16 saves). Phenomonal stats for anyone, much less a rookie. After tweeting this to him, Passan admitted that he was incorrect, and sent kudos to Kimbrel by posting his stats. The reason I put that in this blog is because it got me really thinking about the Rookie of the Year competition in the National League. The ROY competition has been a 3-man race most of the year Craig Kimbrel, Freddie Freeman, and Danny Espinoza, but it looks like it is turning into a 2-man race between teammates. Let's look at the argument for each...

Danny Espinoza came storming out of the gates, and led NL rookies in HR's, RBI, and SLG % at the All-Star break. He was selected to the midsummer classic, and rightfully so. He has cooled off quite a bit since the all-start break, but still has impressive power numbers. He currently is sitting at 17 HRs, 55 RBI, .422 SLG, and 12 SB. Espinoza plays a solid 2B, and helped keep the Nationals around the .500 mark for most of the season. The biggest argument against Espinoza is his batting average, .228. He also only boasts a .322 OBP. Despite the power numbers, it will be very difficult to have a ROY batting under .230.

Freddie Freeman struggled early in the season, but has been on a consistent tear over the last 2 months. Evidence of this included his 20-game hit streak that was snapped last night. Freeman was not selected to the all-star team, but has been on fire since the break. He has caught up to Espinoza in many of the power categories, but also has a much better avg, on-base %, and has played gold-glove caliber defense at 1B. Freeman has 15 HRs, 55 RBI, and .474 SLG. He also boasts a .298 batting average and a .362 OBP. At this point, Espinoza only has Freeman trumped in homeruns, and that is by 2. What is more impressive for Freeman is that he has done much of his damage with Chipper and McCann out, and Heyward struggling. Him and Uggla have put this team on their back during a rough stretch. Due to him passing Espinoza in almost every offensive category, and with him playing gold-glove caliber defense, one would have to think that at this point, there is no way Freeman loses the ROY to Espinoza.

Craig Kimbrel has been dynamite as the Braves closer. Fredi Gonzalez deserves some kudos for sticking with Kimbrel as the closer when he went through a rough patch and Venters was dominating. Fredi continued to boast confidence in Kimbrel, and it has paid off. Above I posted his numbers over his last 24 appearances. During this stretch, he has been the best reliever in all of baseball, not just rookies. Now let's look at his overall numbers. Kimbrel is 3-2 overall with a 1.93 era, and 34 saves. In 56 innings he has 87 Ks, 22 bb, and only given up 1 HR. His strikeout to walk ratio is an awesome 3.95. Almost 4 strikeouts to every walk. He has converted 16 consecutive saves, and has not blown a save since June 8th, two months ago. Kimbrel set the major league record for most saves by a rookie before the all-start break with 28. There is no denying Craig Kimbrel's accomplishments, and no reason for him not to finish 1st or 2nd in ROY voting.

If voting were today, and I held a vote (which obviously I do not), my NL ROY ballot would look like this:
1) Freeman
2) Kimbrel
3) Espinoza

As of today, I give Freeman the nod over Kimbrel due to him going out there on an every day basis. Most rookies struggle in the 2nd half as teams find weaknesses, but Freeman has excelled. In saying that, a Freeman slump accompanied by continued dominance by Kimbrel, and these two could flip-flop. Espinoza was probably in the lead at the All-Star break, but his recent struggles have sent him to 3rd.

What do you think? Who are your top 3?

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